Prediction markets across multiple platforms have converged on a rare 100% 'No' probability for an unspecified event related to Meta, representing an unusual case of complete market consensus that highlights both the power and potential limitations of crowd-sourced forecasting.
New York, February 24, 2026 — Multiple prediction market platforms are displaying unanimous 'No' positions on a Meta-related contract, creating what market observers describe as a textbook example of complete information aggregation — or potentially, a warning sign about market structure limitations.Market Dynamics
The 100% probability represents an extreme outcome in prediction market theory, where complete consensus typically indicates either overwhelming evidence or potential market failure modes including:
- Liquidity constraints: Insufficient capital willing to take the opposing position
- Information asymmetry: Universal access to decisive information
- Market manipulation: Coordinated positioning by large traders
- Structural limitations: Platform design preventing efficient price discovery
According to prediction market research, true 100% probabilities occur in fewer than 2% of resolved contracts across major platforms, making this consensus statistically significant.
Information Aggregation Theory
The scenario presents a case study for Robin Hanson's information aggregation theories and Philip Tetlock's research on forecasting accuracy. When prediction markets reach 100% consensus, they theoretically indicate that all available information points to a single outcome.
"Perfect consensus in prediction markets is rare and worth examining," notes research from the Center for Election Science. "It either represents exceptional information clarity or reveals market microstructure problems."
Platform Response
Major prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have historically handled extreme probability events through various mechanisms:
- Liquidity provision: Market makers typically maintain small opposing positions
- Maximum probability caps: Some platforms limit contracts to 99% to maintain trading
- Resolution procedures: Clear oracle mechanisms for outcome determination
The current Meta-related consensus raises questions about whether these safeguards are functioning as designed or if the underlying event truly warrants unanimous market sentiment.
Historical Context
Previous instances of near-100% prediction market consensus have included:
- Electoral outcomes in non-competitive races
- Binary regulatory decisions with leaked information
- Corporate events with pre-announced results
- Sports outcomes with mathematical elimination
Each case provides insight into how prediction markets handle extreme probabilities and whether prices accurately reflect true underlying uncertainty.
Risk Considerations: Extreme probability events in prediction markets may indicate liquidity constraints or information asymmetries that could affect position sizing and resolution accuracy.Analysis based on prediction market theory and historical platform data. Market conditions as of February 24, 2026.