A prediction market asking whether the United States will strike Iran by February 26, 2026 has generated $8.1 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, making it one of the most actively traded geopolitical contracts on the platform.
The surge in trading activity underscores growing institutional and retail interest in using prediction markets to hedge against geopolitical risks and gauge probability-weighted outcomes for international conflicts.
Market Activity
- Contract volume: $8.1 million in 24 hours
- Platform daily volume: $119.12 million across all markets
- Total platform liquidity: $25.72 million
- Active contracts: 31 markets currently trading
The Iran strike contract represents approximately 6.8% of Polymarket's total daily volume, indicating significant trader interest in Middle Eastern geopolitical developments. This concentration of volume in a single geopolitical market is unusual, as political prediction markets typically see more distributed trading across multiple contracts.
Geopolitical prediction markets have gained traction among institutional traders seeking to quantify tail risks and hedge portfolio exposure to international conflicts. Unlike traditional polling or expert analysis, these markets aggregate information from participants with capital at stake, potentially providing more accurate probability assessments.
"Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as information aggregation tools rather than just betting platforms," according to recent Bloomberg analysis of the sector. The Iran contract's trading volume suggests market participants are actively pricing geopolitical escalation scenarios.
Platform Context
Polymarket has emerged as the dominant decentralized prediction market, processing significantly more volume than regulated competitors like Kalshi, which reported zero trading volume and open interest in the past 24 hours. The platform's ability to list geopolitical contracts without traditional regulatory constraints has attracted traders seeking exposure to international event outcomes.
The concentration of trading in geopolitical markets reflects broader institutional adoption of prediction markets for risk management and information discovery, particularly for events where traditional hedging instruments are unavailable.
Risk Considerations: Prediction market contracts carry resolution risk, liquidity constraints, and regulatory uncertainty. Geopolitical markets may be subject to manipulation attempts and information asymmetries.Data sources: Polymarket platform data, Bloomberg. Figures as of February 24, 2026.